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The TAtech Talent Market Barometer for February, 2023

A joint project of TAtech and Public Insight(R)

In Brief

The Talent Market Barometer is based on two metrics: the Supply-Demand Ratio and Net Migrations in the U.S. talent market. The Supply-Demand Ratio compares the number of job seekers with resumes to the net number of jobs posted in a select set of workforce sectors. Net Migrations measures the number of people with resumes entering or leaving those same sectors.

In February, the data show a positive trend in the Supply-Demand Ratio and a negative trend in Net Migrations in the talent market. Our forecast for talent acquisition is then determined by the month-to-month direction of those two metrics – in this case, between January and February 2023. Based on that data, the current Barometer reading is for a Slightly Improving Market for Recruiters. Conditions may be different in your specific location or for your specific target talent cohorts.

What does a positive trend in the Supply-Demand Ratio mean?

In the six workforce sectors we monitor (which comprise approximately 50 percent of the U.S. working population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau), four of the six sectors had more job seekers with resumes than there were posted jobs in February – a favorable condition for recruiters – while two did not – an unfavorable condition for recruiters.

There was a favorable Supply-Demand Ratio in:
• Retail
• Accommodation & Food Services
• Transportation & Warehousing
• Finance & Insurance

There was an unfavorable Supply-Demand Ratio in:
• Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
• Healthcare & Social Assistance

This positive trend is significant in two respects: first, it reflects a negative to positive shift in one of the six sectors we monitor - Finance & Insurance. And second, it occurred despite the fact that there were significantly more jobs being posted in two of the sectors - Accommodation & Food Services and Retail. While having more job seekers with resumes in sectors that were also seeing more job posted could diminish the positivity of the ratio in those sectors, the ratio itself continued to be favorable for recruiters.

What does a negative trend in Net Migrations mean?

In the six workforce sectors being monitored, four of the sectors had fewer people with resumes coming into the sector in February, a condition that was unfavorable for recruiters, while two had an increase in the number of people with resumes entering the sector and therefore were becoming more favorable for recruiters.

Those less favorable were:
• Retail
• Finance & Insurance
• Transportation & Warehousing
• Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Those becoming more favorable were:
• Healthcare & Social Assistance
• Accommodation & Food Services

The negative trend was driven by the fact that two of the sectors - Transportation & Warehousing and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services - went from a positive reading in January to a negative reading in February. That shift was partially offset by the Accommodations & Food Services sector, which went from negative reading in January to a positive one in February. However, the decline was particularly steep - almost 90 percent - in the Transportation & Warehousing sector, while the gains in the Healthcare & Social Assistance and Accommodation & Food Services sectors were more modest.

Our Forecast

Our forecast looks at the month-to-month changes in both the Supply-Demand Ratio and Net Migrations to forecast a talent market that is:
• Challenging for recruiters
• Deteriorating for recruiters
• Unchanged for recruiters
• Improving for recruiters
• Favorable for recruiters
• Or improving/deteriorating from one of those ratings.

The direction of the market from January to February 2023 is as follows for the six workforce sectors was:
• Retail: Unchanged from Deteriorating in January
• Accommodation & Food Services: Improved from Deteriorating in January
• Transportation & Warehousing: Unchanged from Deteriorating in January
• Professional, Scientific & Technical Services: Unchanged from Deteriorating in January
• Finance & Insurance: Unchanged from Deteriorating in January
• Healthcare: Unchanged from Improving in January

Based on these readings, our February forecast is for a Slightly Improving Market for Recruiters, better by just a bit than the Challenging Market for Recruiters we forecast in January.

Public Insight

Job Market Data & Analytics: Public Insight provides job market insights that optimize recruiting and career strategies and improve talent acquisition.

Public Insight acquires the market data used in the Barometer from Indeed and Glassdoor (Recruit Holdings) as well as select government publications and then analyzes it to produce a broad range of in-depth metrics. The resulting data set provides a targeted 70 percent proxy for the talent market in the U.S.